Both teams had similar starts to their season, drawing in the opening game and winning in the 2nd. The difference is that Bolton drew at home to Fulham then won away away at West ham, while Brum drew away at Sunderland before they won at home vs Blackburn. Both had won in the Carling Cup in the midweek although -again- Bolton did it away from home at Southampton, while Birmingham won at home over Rochdale.

It is usually said that Birmingham are vulnerable on the road though. Last season they conceded 12 defeats on the road out of a total of 14. Bolton were 6-6-7 at home last season and also this season failed to win at home, so not much of a home advantage in general, although against Birmingham there still maybe some advantage.

It also has to be noted that Brum had lost in each of their last 3 visits to the Reebok, and last season even lost at home (one of only 2 home defeats).

Now considering the above facts and stats, and seeing as Elmander’s form is on the ups while McFadden is out injured for Birmingham, we can only say that the odds above evens on the home win are seriously inflated and should be taken. There’s always a chance of the draw here, but Birmingham only drew twice away from home last season, so still the home win is the way to go.