South Africa 2010 will be England’s thirteenth appearance at the World Cup finals. Will it prove to be lucky as Fabio Capello’s men emulate the team of 1966, or will it prove to be unlucky and see the Three Lions eliminated at the first hurdle for the first time since 1958?

Here’s our look at England’s past World Cup performances with odds on them repeating such a performance in 2010.

First round elimination – 6/1

England’s first World Cup appearance was in Brazil in 1950 and the Three Lions started with a win as Stan Mortensen and Wilf Mannion scored in a 2-0 win over Chile. However, their following game remains one of the tournament’s biggest upsets as the USA triumphed 1-0 in Belo Horizonte. A further 1-0 defeat to Spain followed and England were eliminated at the first hurdle.

Although they remained unbeated, England fared little better in Sweden in 1958. Three draws against Austria, the Soviet Union and the eventual winners Brazil saw England once again eliminated in the first round.
It is 6/1 that England are knocked out of the 2010 World Cup in the group stages, and with only USA, Algeria and Slovenia to play, it would be a major surprise and disappointment if Capello’s side were to emulate the poor performance of 60 years ago.

Second round elimination – 11/4

After yet another change to the tournament format, England reached the ’second group stage’ of the 1982 World Cup in Spain after impressive wins over France, Czechoslovakia and Kuwait. However, Ron Greenwood’s side couldn’t conjure up a goal in 180 minutes of football in the second group stage, drawing 0-0 with West Germany and Spain to be narrowly eliminated.

England were once again knocked out of the World Cup at the second round stage in 1998. In a match featuring Michael Owen’s wondergoal and David Beckham’s red card, Sol Campbell’s header was inexplicably chalked off by the Danish referee and Argentina went on to win the penalty shootout after missed spot kicks from David Batty and Paul Ince.

England’s likely second round opponents in 2010 are Australia, Ghana or Serbia and so, whilst 11/4 might be the ‘favourite’ in the ’stage of elimination’ market, it would be a considerable disappointment if England were to go out in the last sixteen.

Quarter final elimination – 7/2

The quarter-finals of a World Cup have been England’s Achilles heel since 1954 as on no less than six occasions have England fallen at the quarter-final hurdle.

In 1954 it was the powerhouse of Uruguay that ended England’s chances, Nat Lofthouse and Tom Finney scoring in a 4-2 defeat. Brazil’s 3-1 win saw off England in Chile in 1962, and many still find the 1970 quarter-final too painful to remember as West Germany came from 2-0 down to defeat England 3-2 after extra time in León.

Bobby Robson’s side were unfortunate to be eliminated in the 1986 quarter finals by the infamous ‘Hand of God’ before Sven Goran Erkisson’s side succumbed to Brazil in 2002 and Portugal in 2006.

It’s 7/2 that England’s quarter-final hoodoo continues in South Africa, and with tricky potential opponents such as France or Argentina waiting in the last eight, it could be another last eight heartbreak for the Three Lions.

Semi-final elimination 10/3

For many people, the 1990 World Cup is their earliest memory of the tournament. England rather stumbled into the semi-finals in Italy with a sweeper system installed as the start of the tournament, with the self-same ’sweeper’ Mark Wright deployed as an emergency centre forward in England’s dramatic late win over Cameroon.

Wins over Egypt, Belgium and Cameroon had carried Bobby Robson’s side into the semi-finals and despite playing extremely well against West Germany in Turin, the match finished 1-1, Pearce’s penalty was saved, Waddle missed the target and England were out.

A semi-final appearance in 2010 is probably the least that Fabio Capello expects of his side, and with the likes of Brazil waiting at this stage, it’s realistically the best England can hope for. The 10/3 on a semi-final elimination will be a punt based on both expectation and hope.

Runners-up 6/1

England have never been the runners-up in a World Cup but it is 6/1 that they are the beaten finalists in Johannesburg on 11 July. The Three Lions’ defeat at the quarter-final stage of a major tournament deflates a nation; how will they be after losing in a World Cup Final?

Winners 11/2

The 30th July 1966 is probably the most celebrated date in English football as Alf Ramsey’s ‘wingless wonders’ defeated West Germany 4-2 in the final at Wembley. The likes of Bobby Charlton, Gordon Banks, Geoff Hurst, Martin Peters and Bobby Moore are national icons as England joined a group of just five nations (at the time) who had become World Champions.

England are the 11/2 third favourites to emulate the team of 1966 and bring the World Cup back to the birthplace of football. To do it, they’ll have to beat some superb teams and, probably, a couple of ex-World Cup winning nations. Can they do it? Tough, but not impossible.

The above preview and odds was supplied by Paddy Power.

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bet365 spokesman Steve Freeth “John Terry’s dip in form has coincided with his off the field problems and he no longer has the captain’s armband as insurance to keep him in Capello’s side.

“Terry on top of his game would be a cert to start against the States, but we haven’t seen that over recent weeks.”

2010 World Cup

Will John Terry Start Against USA?

Yes                                          1/5

No                                           10/3

bet365 spokesman Steve Freeth “The three chosen for the Egypt game look to be holding the aces when it comes to South Africa, but picking a number one from the trio is proving difficult for us and punters alike.

“Joe Hart’s price has been plummeting week after week, due to his good form – but this also highlights the current question marks against the likes of James and Green.”

Always good news when the bookies are unsure in a particular betting market.

bet365 Odds on who will start 1st game for England in World Cup 2010

David James 2.62
Robert Green 2.75
Joe Hart 3.50
Paul Robinson 26.00
Ben Foster 34.00
Chris Kirkland 51.00
Scott Carson 101.00

Arsenal are the team that the bookies are finding difficult to pin down with prices ranging from a low of 9 to a high of 15, Barcelona remain favourites while Chelsea have drifted slightly.

The big surprise for us is that Real Madrid seem to be holding their price even though they lost and never scored an away goal against Lyon and must be considered vulnerable, but not by the bookies.

The English sides though do occupy three of the top six in the betting even though two of them lost, could it be a case of reputations frightening the bookies?

The 2nd legs kick off again on the 9th-10th March and 16th-17th March

It all appeared to go wrong for the Yorkshire outfit when they beat Man Utd in the FA Cup and ever since that fateful day their league performances seem to have suffered somewhat.

In all fairness it does seem to be a two horse race still if the bookies odds are anything to go by and it can be argued that as soon as Leeds get the momentum back that the odds on display right now will seem like huge value in a few weeks time.

Time will tell.

England are 11/2 third favourites for the World Cup and will benefit from a very favourable draw for South Africa. However, there are various factors that won’t help the Three Lions as they attempt to emulate the team of 1966 and win the World Cup.

The Locations

England will be based in South Africa at the Bafokeng Sports Campus, 1,500 metres above sea level and close to Rustenburg, the location of their opening game against the USA. They also return to Rustenburg for their last sixteen match should they win their group.

However, Fabio Capello’s side face a long journey and significant change of conditions for their matches against Slovenia and Algeria and their potential quarter final clash. England must make the 861 mile (1,385 km) trip to Cape Town for the game against Algeria six days after their opening fixture and face another 687 mile (1,105 km) journey to Port Elizabeth to face Slovenia. Not only are there long journeys to be made to these venues but the matches will also be played nearer sea level where the conditions will be much more windy and humid. How Capello’s side acclimatise themselves to these changes in conditions could be vital to their progress.

The Pressure

England are placed at number 7 in FIFA’s latest ‘world rankings’. If that seeding were applied to the World Cup, England could expect to be knocked out in the quarter finals. In a tennis tournament, that’s how they’d be expected to perform.

Why, then, do the bookies make them 11/2 third favourites to win the World Cup and why would the British public be devastated by a quarter-final exit?

Whether the arrival of Fabio Capello or the ease by which England qualified is to blame for raising expectation, their odds do look out of kilter with the reality. Would you automatically expect England to beat the likes of France, Germany, Holland, Argentina, Portugal or Italy at a World Cup? I wouldn’t, and so making them more likely to win in South Africa than those sides seems to be heaping an awful lot of pressure on Capello’s side.



Their Record Against The Big Teams

England have lost four matches under Fabio Capello. Ignoring the 1-0 defeat to Ukraine in a dead rubber having already qualified for the World Cup, England’s defeats came against Spain, France and Brazil.

It’s all very well guiding your side to wins over the likes of Switzerland, Kazakhstan and Andorra but when England have faced big names, they have generally come up short. OK, so a creditable 2-2 draw against Holland in Amsterdam and a good 2-1 win over Germany were promising results, but when England have played the top sides under Capello they have been found wanting. Against Spain and Brazil, England were comprehensively outplayed.

What makes us think this is suddenly going to change at the World Cup?

The Injuries

For a few weeks in 2002, Deportivo la Coruna midfielder Aldo Duscher was England’s #1 villain and ‘metatarsal’ became the most used word in football. The injury David Beckham suffered whilst on Manchester United duty almost kept him out of the 2002 finals although when he did play he was a shadow of the player that had almost single-handedly taken his country to the Finals.

Wayne Rooney had burst onto the international scene prior to Euro 2004 and his goals had carried England to the quarter-finals. However, an ankle injury forced him out of their vital game with Portugal after just 27 minutes with England winning 1-0, and with him went England’s chances.

First choice right back Gary Neville also missed the tournament in 2002 with a broken foot and England’s final three matches in 2006 with a calf injury.

However well-prepared Capello is, and however sure he is of his final 23, somewhere along the line an injury will cost England. Whether they have the strength in depth to cover an injury to Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, Wayne Rooney, Ashley Cole, John Terry or Steven Gerrard is another matter.



The Penalties

No. Perhaps let’s not go there, shall we?

This article was republished with the kind permission of Paddy Power

Ajax V Juventus immediately jumps out at you as also does Villarreal V Wolfsburg and Hamburg V PSV, in fact there are about 6 or 7 games that can be classed as very competitive.

Liverpool of course have a relative easy game against Rumanian outfit Unirea while Fulham have a more difficult task against Shakhtar Donetsk.

All in all an exciting night of football is ahead of us but more importantly tonight could be the last chance to grab some value on your team to win the tournament outright.

As an example even if Liverpool do have a fairly easy game and are expected to win their odds to win outright will drop once they get through this round.

The reason is simple in that some of their competitors will be knocked out, with so many top teams facing each other once this round is over the outright betting odds for the top teams will drop.

Therefore if you want to back a team to win outright then now would be the time to get the best price.

With both Tottenham and Liverpool losing on Wednesday evening and Man City winning ion Tuesday the bookies now make City the favourites to get that elusive top 4 spot but only just.

Aston Villa also saw their price harden a little after holding Man Utd at Villa Park on Wednesday.

The big losers appear to be Tottenham who are now considered the outsiders amongst the favourites and are available at odds as high as 7s.

Do you now think Man City have the upper hand, have Spurs been fatally wounded, can Liverpool get back on track, work that out and you may find some terrific value on this market.

Burnley have the worst away record in the Premiership without a single away win and just the single draw from 12 away games.

On current form Fulham have picked up five points from their last six Premiership games while Burnley have picked up four.

Is it a given with respective home and away records that Fulham will win this one or will it be a case that Burnley will finally break their disastrous away run.

Stoke are faring better and currently sit 11th in the table and are currently on a run of six competitive matches unbeaten.

Despite the respective recent form for both sides it should be noted that Stoke have won just once on the road this season in the Premiership while Wigan have lost four times from 10 home games and can claim Chelsea among their home wins.

Will it be current form or season statistics that determine the best bet in this game?

Sunderland have slipped significantly and while not as desperate as Portsmouth they are only four points above the relegation zone.

Neither team can afford to lose this game but can they afford to draw it either?

Are Sunderland the more confident side after two consecutive draws or will Portsmouth’s desperation give them the edge?

Bolton are never an easy team to beat and under new boss Owen Coyle have lost just once in their last four competitive games.

A win for Man City will see them go to at least 5th spot while any result for Bolton will see them move further away from the relegation zone.

The bookies make Man City the clear favourites as expected, do you agree and think Man City will be too strong for Bolton or can Bolton do what Hull City did and get the win?

Ladbrokes go as high as 2.75 on the West Londoners retaining the trophy while Skybet go as low as 2.38.

Man City are second favourites highest priced at 5.60 with Betfair, Aston Villa are third favourites at a best priced 8.00 with Ladbrokes and Spurs 4th favourites at 9.00 with Bluesq.

Leeds who Spurs have to play in a replay can be had 81.00 with Stan James.

FA Cup 5th Round Draw

Southampton v Portsmouth
Reading v West Bromwich Albion
Fulham v Notts County or Wigan Athletic
Chelsea v Cardiff City
Bolton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur or Leeds United
Derby County v Birmingham City
Manchester City v Stoke City
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Crystal Palace v Aston Villa

But it does show how far Tottenham have progressed that a draw away to Everton is seen as a disappointment.

Spurs also drew away with direct rivals in the Premiership Aston Villa in their previous match and in both games looked y far the better team.

This Tottenham side appear to have created a pattern, lose to the “original” top 4 (Liverpool apart) draw with the teams considered on their level and beat all other teams.

If they manage to maintain that pattern throughout the season then they look a solid bet to in the top four.

It is also very presumptuous of us to assume that Spurs will not beat Villa, Man City and even Chelsea and Arsenal at White Hart Lane, they are more than capable of winning those games.

All in all Tottenham odds of 5/2 (3.5) with Bet365 is overpriced in our opinion and we will help ourselves to a little of that.

Tottenham to finish Top 4 at 5/2 (3.0) with Bet365

You can still get odds against on Newcastle who could go 7 points clear of WBA if they win their game in hand and even with so long to go it is hard to see Newcastle giving that up.

Skybet are offering Newcastle at 6/5 (2.2) and that is great value.

Yes The Championship can be competitive but it usually breaks down to 1 or 2 in the hunt and generally speaking the team that sets the pace generally is still there come in the end of the season.

For us it was just a case of will WBA be able to catch Newcastle, well of course they can and so can a few others but it is a whole lot less than an evens chance it will happen and if anything Newcastle should be odds on.

Newcastle to win The Championship at 6/5 (2.2) with Skybet.

It has to be said that Liverpool were undone in the Champions League by very late goals scored by Lyon in both home and away fixtures otherwise they would not be looking at a Europa Cup campaign.

The odds of 6/1 (7.0) offered by Totesport are very tempting, they are favourites but when you consider that the teams below them in the betting are all beatable by Liverpool and that you would expect that Liverpool will progress to the latter stages then the odds look even better.

We will be making Liverpool a recommended bet and are of the opinion that the odds will continue to drop as the competition moves forward.

Liverpool to win Europa League 6/1 (7.0) with Totesport

Man City are available at a highest price of 3/1 (4.0) available with Ladbrokes and for a team that has just beaten Chelsea and ran Man Utd very close at Old Trafford in the Premiership earlier in the season those odds look too high and represent value.

Man Utd remain favourites at best priced 7/4 (2.75) with VCBet, Aston Villa can be had at 10/3 (4.33) with Corals and the underdogs at 11/2 (5.5) with Bluesq.

Man City however remain the value here and they will be one of our recommended bets.

Man City to win the Carling Cup 3/1 (4.0) with Ladbrokes