Everton were outplayed by Liverpool in the Merseyside derby, that’s for sure. They never looked like winning that game. Still, they are unbeaten in 5 EPL home games, having won their last 3 and kept 3 clean sheets in them too.
Chelsea, the table leaders have not lost in 13 games in all competitions, but they have a dismal away record for a top team of late. They only won 2 of their last 7 on the travel (1 of their last 5 EPL), and Everton are certainly better than West Ham, Birmingham or Hull. Ok, maybe not Birmingham as the Brummies are good enough at home, but statistically both have drawn 5 and lost only 2 of their home games. Birmingham played one more home game than the Toffees, and thus registered one more home win.
Never mind that. My point is Chelsea are well under priced @ 1.75 and I cannot support these odds even if I wanted to. It maybe true that Everton are winless vs Chelsea in 23 successive games (last won in 2000) but they often get draws. In fact, 3 out of the last 4 between these two ended in draws.
Pienaar’s red card vs Liverpool means he will miss the game today. Fellaini is also out injured, but the good news to all Toffees is that Spaniard Atreta is back on full-fitness and could start. Moyes certainly missed the creative free-kick specialist for almost a year now.
Chelsea are still without Essien, Bosingwa, Belletti and “possibly” Deco, but it did not appear to affect them against Arsenal in the weekend.
I’ll have to side by Everton on the A.H. market. I had intended to take the +0.5, but –much to my surprise- I find +0.75 to have reasonably high odds.
Pick:
Everton +0.5 A.H. @ 1.94 w/ Pinnacle
