World Cup 2010 – Factors That Won’t Help England

England are 11/2 third favourites for the World Cup and will benefit from a very favourable draw for South Africa. However, there are various factors that won’t help the Three Lions as they attempt to emulate the team of 1966 and win the World Cup.

The Locations

England will be based in South Africa at the Bafokeng Sports Campus, 1,500 metres above sea level and close to Rustenburg, the location of their opening game against the USA. They also return to Rustenburg for their last sixteen match should they win their group.

However, Fabio Capello’s side face a long journey and significant change of conditions for their matches against Slovenia and Algeria and their potential quarter final clash. England must make the 861 mile (1,385 km) trip to Cape Town for the game against Algeria six days after their opening fixture and face another 687 mile (1,105 km) journey to Port Elizabeth to face Slovenia. Not only are there long journeys to be made to these venues but the matches will also be played nearer sea level where the conditions will be much more windy and humid. How Capello’s side acclimatise themselves to these changes in conditions could be vital to their progress.

The Pressure

England are placed at number 7 in FIFA’s latest ‘world rankings’. If that seeding were applied to the World Cup, England could expect to be knocked out in the quarter finals. In a tennis tournament, that’s how they’d be expected to perform.

Why, then, do the bookies make them 11/2 third favourites to win the World Cup and why would the British public be devastated by a quarter-final exit?

Whether the arrival of Fabio Capello or the ease by which England qualified is to blame for raising expectation, their odds do look out of kilter with the reality. Would you automatically expect England to beat the likes of France, Germany, Holland, Argentina, Portugal or Italy at a World Cup? I wouldn’t, and so making them more likely to win in South Africa than those sides seems to be heaping an awful lot of pressure on Capello’s side.



Their Record Against The Big Teams

England have lost four matches under Fabio Capello. Ignoring the 1-0 defeat to Ukraine in a dead rubber having already qualified for the World Cup, England’s defeats came against Spain, France and Brazil.

It’s all very well guiding your side to wins over the likes of Switzerland, Kazakhstan and Andorra but when England have faced big names, they have generally come up short. OK, so a creditable 2-2 draw against Holland in Amsterdam and a good 2-1 win over Germany were promising results, but when England have played the top sides under Capello they have been found wanting. Against Spain and Brazil, England were comprehensively outplayed.

What makes us think this is suddenly going to change at the World Cup?

The Injuries

For a few weeks in 2002, Deportivo la Coruna midfielder Aldo Duscher was England’s #1 villain and ‘metatarsal’ became the most used word in football. The injury David Beckham suffered whilst on Manchester United duty almost kept him out of the 2002 finals although when he did play he was a shadow of the player that had almost single-handedly taken his country to the Finals.

Wayne Rooney had burst onto the international scene prior to Euro 2004 and his goals had carried England to the quarter-finals. However, an ankle injury forced him out of their vital game with Portugal after just 27 minutes with England winning 1-0, and with him went England’s chances.

First choice right back Gary Neville also missed the tournament in 2002 with a broken foot and England’s final three matches in 2006 with a calf injury.

However well-prepared Capello is, and however sure he is of his final 23, somewhere along the line an injury will cost England. Whether they have the strength in depth to cover an injury to Rio Ferdinand, Frank Lampard, Wayne Rooney, Ashley Cole, John Terry or Steven Gerrard is another matter.



The Penalties

No. Perhaps let’s not go there, shall we?

This article was republished with the kind permission of Paddy Power